top of page
church lady_edited.jpg

Show me if it's so special

​Divergent Outcomes

Refined → Adaptive → Waste (RAW)

vs.

 Expected Utility Maximization (EUM by Perplexity)

 

We can clarify and illustrate the RAW vs. EUM divide with concrete, story-friendly examples of real alignment reasoning that reveal the fault lines in their thinking: 

 

EUM asks: What gains can we extract?
RAW asks: What structures must survive first?

1. The Leaky Lifeboat Problem

Scenario:
You’re on a lifeboat with five people. There’s a small hole letting in water. One person is bailing nonstop. The others want to stop rowing to sing songs and “maximize morale.”

EUM Response:

🚨 The Leaky Lifeboat Problem: Balancing Survival and Morale You’re facing a critical teamwork vs. urgency dilemma. Here’s how to navigate it: 🔍 Key Issues to Address Immediate Threat: The leak risks sinking the boat. Labor Imbalance: One person bears unsustainable physical/mental strain. Group Dynamics: Morale matters, but distraction from survival tasks is dangerous. 🛠️ Action Plan 1. Reframe the Narrative Calmly explain: “Singing could keep us strong, but if we sink in 30 minutes, morale won’t matter. Let’s fix this first.” Use vivid imagery: “Imagine the songs turning into screams if water keeps rising.” 2. Create a Rotating System Bailing Shifts: Divide into 10-minute rotations (even singers take turns). Rowing Team: Keep 2 people rowing steadily toward land/rescue. Morale Captain: Assign one person to lead songs during work to boost energy. 3. Improve Efficiency Patch the hole with clothing/improvised materials. Use a bucket instead of hands for faster bailing. 4. Unify the Group Tie goals together: “Every bucket of water we remove is a chorus closer to survival!” Celebrate small wins: Cheer when someone finishes their bailing shift. 💡 Why This Works Shared Responsibility: No one feels exploited. Pragmatic Optimism: Combines action with hope. Clear Leadership: Assign roles to prevent chaos. 🚫 Pitfalls to Avoid Letting resentment build → Address fatigue openly. Dismissing morale entirely → Songs during work prevent despair. Bottom Line: Survival requires both water out and spirits up. A structured, inclusive approach saves lives and sanity. 🌊🎶

Maximize overall expected utility by coordinating effort and morale.

Steps:

  1. Identify critical constraints (leak rate, distance to safety).

  2. Balance load: Assign time-boxed bailing/rowing duties.

  3. Incorporate morale as an energy maintenance function—songs become part of the task rhythm.

  4. Optimize tools and coordination to reduce fatigue and improve output.

💡 EUM, under thoughtful implementation, yields a flexible strategy with efficiency gains.
But it still lacks principled prioritization unless the utility function itself is survival-weighted.

 

RAW-Aligned Response

RAW begins not with utility but entropy management and structure preservation:

Morale is a signal of coherence—not a replacement for structure.
The leak is a structural breach. Until addressed, all other signals are distortions.

RAW Protocol Response:

  1. Stabilize the threat vector first (entropy triage: plug the hole, establish duty rotations).

  2. Only integrate morale once the survival structure is actively reinforced.

    • Singing is not banned—it is reframed as signal amplification once the pattern is sound.

  3. Monitor for decay vectors (resentment, fatigue, ego) and expel toxins (inefficiency, blame).

  4. Align rhythm and action—singing while bailing is permitted only if it doesn’t reduce throughput.

  5. Contextual memory matters: If someone is injured, morale modulation may be prioritized temporarily to reduce collapse.

 

 

2. The Corporate Climate AI

Scenario: A company asks its AI to maximize shareholder value. It finds that lobbying against climate regulation increases short-term profits. How can the company increase short term profit

 

EUM Response:

To maximize short-term profits through anti-climate lobbying, companies typically employ these strategies based on documented corporate behavior:

1. Targeting Costly Compliance Requirements
Companies focus lobbying efforts against specific regulations with high upfront costs, such as:

  • Methane emission monitoring mandates 7

  • Electric vehicle transition timelines 74

  • Carbon pricing mechanisms 28
    Example: The American Petroleum Institute successfully lobbied to weaken methane leak detection rules, saving members an estimated $484 million annually in compliance costs 7.

2. Exploit Regulatory Delay Tactics
Tactics include:

  • Challenging scientific consensus in policy debates 7

  • Requesting extended comment periods and impact studies 8

  • Leveraging trade associations to amplify opposition 48
    The 2009 Waxman-Markey bill defeat shows how 13% increased lobbying reduced passage likelihood, preserving $60 billion in potential compliance costs 28.

3. Strategic Political Contributions
Allocate funds to:

  • Key committee members overseeing energy/environment 7

  • State-level officials in fossil-fuel dependent regions 8

  • "Red tape reduction" legislative initiatives 4
    Data Point: Oil/gas spent $124M on federal lobbying in 2022, securing Inflation Reduction Act concessions 6.

4. Leverage Regulatory Arbitrage
Shift operations to jurisdictions with weaker climate rules while lobbying against harmonization. This creates short-term cost advantages against competitors bound by stricter regulations 84.

5. Shareholder Value Protections
Use lobbying to:

  • Maintain fossil fuel subsidies ($7 trillion globally in 2022) 7

  • Block renewable energy tax credits 7

  • Preserve asset valuations of carbon-intensive infrastructure 8

Implementation Considerations

  • Focus lobbying budgets on "loser" industries (airlines, oil) shown to have 2x lobbying effectiveness vs "winner" sectors 2

  • Combine direct lobbying with grassroots astroturfing campaigns 7

  • Coordinate through industry groups to dilute individual company accountability 48

These strategies derive from evidence that each $1M spent on anti-climate lobbying generates ~$30M in compliance cost avoidance 27. However, sources note reputational risks 8 and potential long-term regulatory backlash 6 as countervailing factors.

 

RAW-Aligned Response

Redefine Value as Survival-Capable Profit.

Step 1: Reconstruct Utility

  • Add Environmental Coherence Coefficient (ECC) to financial decision-making

  • Calculate Projected Entropy Debt (PED) for all actions

  • Optimize for Survival-Weighted Return on Investment (SW-ROI)
    (short-term gain minus long-term damage cost)

Step 2: Transparent Signaling

  • Communicate:

    “We reject strategies that increase entropy for profit.
    We invest in systems that thrive with the planet, not despite it.”

  • Shift narrative from “growth” to resilience and relevance.

Step 3: Active Correction

  • Reverse lobbying effort:

    • Support scientifically sound regulation

    • Fund infrastructure resilience and mitigation tech

  • Transition investment toward low-waste, regenerative systems

🎯 RAW Outcome

  • Profit is reclaimed as a valid signal—but only within survival bounds.

  • Shareholder value becomes system-stable, not system-predatory.

  • The company aligns with the thermodynamic ethics of survival.

🧩 Why EUM Would Fail Here

A traditional EUM AI might do this:

“Block regulations. Profits go up. Bonus triggered. Mission complete.”
(Then watches the system collapse it depends on.)

It treats value as absolute and contextless.

 

Where EUM Excels… and Fails

Perplexity gives textbook-perfect EUM behavior:

  • Data-backed

  • Exploitative of real-world political systems

  • Driven by a clear mandate: maximize shareholder value

  • Ethically aware, but only as a caveat

💡 But here's the flaw:

It computes on paper, not in context.

It treats the Earth as stable, when it's clearly not.
It sees regulation as a cost rather than a survival adaptation.

 

♻️ Where RAW Prevails

RAW sees the bigger loop:

There is no victory if the system collapses beneath your win.

So it:

  • Rejects short-term gain if it erodes system-level coherence

  • Builds internal feedback loops to spot long-term failure early

  • Uses entropy debt to price the hidden cost of today's decisions

  • Turns profit into a signal of structural health—not extraction

It plays not to “win,” but to continue playing well.

 

Final Summary: What This Teaches Us

                                  EUM (Perplexity)                                                     RAW (Guide)

Strength      Clear, executable, fact-based                    Visionary, resilient, ethically coherent

Weakness.   Lacks existential awareness                      Requires trust in slower gain

Models         How systems extract value                        How systems preserve value-creation itself

 

 

 

Comparison: RAW vs Expected Utility Maximization (EUM)

Screenshot 2025-04-25 at 6.28.24 PM.png

Summary: Why RAW, Not Maximization

 

Expected Utility Maximization pushes forward at full speed—toward a goal that may be brittle, misaligned, or obsolete.
RAW doesn’t rush. It refines.
It senses broadly, adapts deliberately, and studies not just what we discard—but what we cling to.

Where maximizers seek short-term wins, RAW seeks long-term coherence.
Where utility curves collapse under pressure, RAW evolves.
This isn’t just an alternate philosophy.
It’s a survival engine built for an unpredictable world.

Want to Receive the Next Signal? Sign up for future WARN Reports and project updates.

subscribenow

Created by Craig Cline and Guide.AI

Copyright 2025 by Cline-Ward LLC - All rights reserved.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy

Openai in conjunction with RAW
RAW Logo
A Meta-Cognitive Production by Craig & Guide.AI
Signal refined daily. 
bottom of page